招商银行:12年零售贷款主要投向小微企业

China merchants bank: 12 years retail loans mainly to small micro enterprise

At present the key retail loans to small micro loan. 13 years is expected to overall loan growth is 12 years change trend and the whole trade agreement. To November, small micro loan (the size of the loan below 5 million, the average about 1 million) incremental 700-80 billion, mortgage loans rose by only 5% (about an increase of 16.2 billion). Small micro business use credit factory model, front end branch marketing, collect customer information, transfer to the branch approval center, future approval center on the head office. China merchants bank retail customer base is strong, there is no customer resources bottleneck, but future growth situation will gradually rely more on new customer development. Loan interest rates mean separation rate of 30% or so, at present small micro loan main mortgage loan.

China merchants bank retail business, the characteristics of low risk no fundamental change. China merchants bank (in b end structural adjustment efforts to speed up, it weakened the mortgage leading traditional retail bank characteristics. Due to the low risk mortgage business characteristics, market for mortgage business valuation higher than small micro business, this, to a certain extent, reduce the market valuations of her position. The company hope that three years small micro loan to achieve more than 45% of the retail loans (end of June last year the people's livelihood small micro loans accounted for 65% of the retail loans). In the long run, we recognize because of China's residents department leverage ratio still has large space of ascension, and at the same time, China merchants bank in liabilities end has formed a relatively stable market position, to the company shareholders' management style, China merchants bank in small micro loan to retail loans by more than 45% after target, continue to increase for long-term goals than unlikely, China merchants bank retail business long-term mainstream composition should is still mortgage and consumer loans, China merchants bank retail business, the characteristics of low risk although weakened, but no fundamental change.

4 quarter NIM link better. 4 quarter NIM link 3 quarter better, mainly because in addition to small micro loan maintained a rapid growth, trade information b will be compressed. 13 years trade information structure of b could change.

4 quarter fraction defective link continue to rise slightly. Due to poor relative economic cycle has certain hysteresis quality, and the present economic rebound strength not strong, 4 quarter small fraction defective link continue rising trend. From the structure, manufacturing bad to increase overall bad increase, steel trade, shipping, photovoltaic rises a few bigger. In the economic weak recovery background, we expect 13 years fraction defective is still a small increased risk.

Loan structure, mortgage loan new increment is small, the overall decrease amplitude small. China is still in the phase of urbanization, the real estate industry into b stable growth stage, China merchants bank at present the real estate development loans accounted for b is low, and this could it be increasing.

Maintain long Q buy rating. The transformation of business structure in the stable somewhat faster. 13 years is expected to middle business growth remained relatively stable. Now 13 years dynamic PE and PB were 8.50 and 1.43 times, maintain long Q buy rating and target price of hk $19.66.