来源:交银国际 小编:朱岳 发布时间:2013年01月31日
内容导读: 目前内地零售贷款的重点转向小微贷款。预计2013年整体贷款增速较2012年变化趋势和行业整体一致。到去年11月,小微贷款(贷款规模500万元以下,平均贷款100万元左右)增量700亿至800亿元(人民币,下同),按揭贷款仅增长5%(大约增加162亿元)。小微业务采用信贷工厂模式,前端支行营销,收集客户资讯后,传递到分行审批中心,未来审批中心会放到总行。
China merchants bank powerful ascension small micro loan 4 quarter net spreads have improved
Currently the focus of the mainland retail loans to small micro loan. In 2013 the overall loan growth is expected to more 2012 change trend and the whole trade agreement. To the last November, small micro loan (the size of the loan of 5 million RMB yuan, the average 1 million yuan) incremental 70 billion to 80 billion yuan (RMB, same below), mortgage loans rose by only 5% (about an increase of 16.2 billion yuan). Small micro business use credit factory model, front end branch marketing, collect customer information, transfer to the branch approval center, future approval center on the head office. China merchants bank (3968) retail customer base is strong, there is no customer resources bottleneck, but future growth situation will gradually rely more on new customer development. Loan interest rates mean separation rate of 30% or so, at present small micro loans mainly for mortgage loan.
Small micro credit 3 years accounted for more than 45%
China merchants bank in assets end structural adjustment efforts to speed up, it weakened the mortgage as the leading traditional retail bank characteristics. Due to the mortgage business low risk characteristics, the market for mortgage business valuation higher than small micro business, this, to a certain extent, reduce the market valuations of her position. The company hope that three years small micro loan to achieve more than 45% of the retail loans (end of June last year the people's livelihood small micro loans accounted for 65% of the retail loans). In the long run, we think that because of China's residents department leverage ratio still has large space of ascension, and at the same time, China merchants bank in liabilities end has formed a relatively stable market position, to the company shareholders' management style, China merchants bank in small micro loan to retail loans by more than 45% after target, continue to increase for long-term goals than unlikely, China merchants bank retail business long-term mainstream composition should is still mortgage and consumer loans, China merchants bank retail business, the characteristics of low risk although weakened, but no fundamental change.
In the fourth quarter net spreads have improved
4 quarter NIM (net spreads) link 3 quarter better, mainly because in addition to small micro loan maintained a rapid growth, trade assets will be compressed. In 2013, the assets of the structure can be adjusted.
Due to the defect rate relative economic cycle has certain hysteresis quality, and the present economic rebound strength is not strong, 4 quarter small fraction defective link continue rising trend. From the structure, manufacturing bad to increase overall bad increase, steel trade, shipping, photovoltaic rises a few bigger. In the economic weak recovery background, we expect 2013 fraction defective is still a small increased risk.
Loan structure, mortgage loan new increment is small, the overall decrease amplitude small. China is still in the phase of urbanization, the real estate industry into the stable growth stage, China merchants bank at present real estate development loans accounted for low, also in this paper could it be increasing.
The transformation of business structure in the stable somewhat faster. In 2013 is expected to middle business growth remained relatively stable. Currently 2013 dynamic p/e ratio (PE) and city account rate (PB) were 8.50 and 1.43 times, maintain long-term buy rating and 19.66 Hong Kong dollar (hk $18.36 yesterday closing) target price.
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